The Rise of an Anti-Western Coalition
The geopolitical landscape has always been shaped by alliances and oppositions. In recent years, the possibility of an anti-Western coalition has gained more attention. Such a coalition could consist of Russia, China, Shia-majority states, and even some BRICS nations, pushing back against Western dominance in areas like finance, military power, and political influence. The scenario you describe isn’t far-fetched, considering recent global developments. However, whether such a coalition could materialise as soon as next year remains uncertain.
Let’s examine this scenario more closely, looking at political, financial, and military dimensions.
1. Political Alignment: Russia, China, and Beyond
Political alignment between Russia and China is already a reality. Both countries share a common interest in reducing Western influence globally. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, has taken a confrontational stance against Western nations, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war. China, under President Xi Jinping, has long been advocating for a multipolar world, where Western powers, especially the United States, are not the central players.
Additionally, we’re witnessing more collaboration between Shia-majority countries like Iran and Iraq. Iran has grown closer to Russia and China, solidifying economic and military ties. Iraq, despite its complex relationship with the West, has deepened its economic links with China, particularly through infrastructure and energy agreements.
The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have also been pushing for a world where emerging economies have more influence in global institutions. While not all BRICS nations are anti-Western, we are seeing the rise of BRICS+ alliances, where countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Argentina have expressed interest in joining. This broader grouping could further challenge Western political dominance, especially within institutions like the United Nations or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
While these signs point towards a growing political alignment, it’s important to note that these countries still maintain complex relations with the West. For example, India, while part of BRICS, has strong ties with Western nations, especially the U.S., due to mutual concerns about China. However, should this alignment become more formalised, the global political order could indeed shift.
2. Financial Strength: Building an Alternative to the Dollar?
China’s economic power is undeniable. It has vast reserves of U.S. dollars and is a manufacturing giant. However, its reliance on the U.S. dollar remains a vulnerability. To counter this, China and other anti-Western states could explore alternative financial systems to reduce their dependence on the dollar.
One of the more likely strategies involves leveraging energy resources. Countries like Russia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iran, and Iraq hold significant oil and gas reserves. In the wake of Western sanctions, Russia has sought to sell its energy in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, such as the Chinese yuan or the euro. If an anti-Western coalition emerges, these energy-rich nations could pool resources to create a new financial bloc.
This could be achieved through a more widespread use of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which several countries, including China, have been developing. A coalition of energy-exporting countries with a shared digital currency could potentially circumvent the U.S.-dominated financial system.
The challenge here is whether such a system could be built and gain global trust within a year. While progress is certainly being made, it might take longer to create an alternative robust enough to compete with the existing financial order. Additionally, most global transactions are still conducted in U.S. dollars, and any large-scale shift would face numerous obstacles, including institutional resistance and market inertia.
3. Military Coalition: Nuclear Alliances as a Deterrent
The military aspect of this scenario is perhaps the most alarming. Both Russia and China possess substantial military capabilities, including nuclear arsenals. Russia, in particular, has become more aggressive militarily, as seen in its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. China, on the other hand, has been increasing its military presence in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.
Iran and North Korea are also critical players in this potential coalition. Iran, long seen as a threat to Western interests in the Middle East, has expanded its missile capabilities and is likely edging closer to nuclear weapons capacity. North Korea, already a nuclear power, has remained belligerent toward the U.S. and its allies, continuing missile tests and aggressive rhetoric.
A formal military coalition among these nations could serve as a powerful deterrent to Western military intervention. The combined nuclear arsenals of Russia, China, and North Korea would make direct military action from the West exceedingly dangerous. Add to that Iran’s growing military influence in the Middle East, and this coalition becomes a formidable force.
However, creating a coherent and formalised military coalition would require overcoming several challenges. China, for example, has traditionally been cautious about direct military alliances, preferring to maintain strategic ambiguity. Additionally, while Russia and Iran have cooperated militarily in places like Syria, coordinating such a broad coalition would require deep trust and alignment of interests—something that isn’t guaranteed in such a diverse group.
4. Strategic Response: Coordinated Resistance to the West
If these countries take coordinated steps to resist Western influence, we could see significant shifts in global dynamics. This could manifest in several ways:
- Energy markets: By using oil and gas exports as leverage, these countries could exert pressure on Western economies, particularly in Europe, which remains heavily dependent on Russian energy.
- Technology: A coordinated push in technology sectors like 5G, artificial intelligence, and military technology could reduce reliance on Western tech firms and foster innovation within the coalition.
- Diplomacy: Through the United Nations and other global institutions, this coalition could resist Western policies, forming a bloc that could veto or challenge Western initiatives.
However, there are risks. Many of these countries have fragile economies, and deepening opposition to the West could further isolate them economically, leading to long-term stagnation. Additionally, the West may respond by deepening ties with other regional powers or using sanctions and military deterrence to curb the influence of this coalition.
Could This Happen by Next Year?
While the seeds of this coalition are being sown, it is unlikely that such a large-scale, coordinated anti-Western coalition will fully materialise by next year. The political, financial, and military elements needed to form such an alliance are complex, and while there has been progress, achieving a fully functional coalition would take more time.
That said, we are likely to see further alignment between these nations, with more concrete steps towards cooperation. The West should not ignore these developments, as they have the potential to reshape the global order in the long term. It’s a scenario that might not reach its peak by next year, but it is one that demands careful monitoring and strategic planning.
